2020 — The year the NFL matters the least, it matters the most
WITH THE CONTINUED spread of Covid-19, 2020 was already set to be a season unlike any other. Indeed, as coronavirus cases spike in California, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Missouri — states which host nearly half (13) of the league’s 32 teams— it’s still far from guaranteed we will have a full season at all.
With nearly 900,000 confirmed deaths worldwide, it’s easy to see sport as trivial. But it remains hugely important. Not because we’ve already lost so much of our routines, the annual events we pace our years by. Nor is it because of our fundamental desire for collective experience. But rather because —as the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA showed recently—sport can force us to have deeply uncomfortable conversations that require individuals and organisations to keep talking about racism long beyond the point when your largely white Twitter feed is ‘exhausted’ hearing about it.
And this has been the offseason on the athlete activism. Players realise they have a voice, an incredibly loud one, and want use it to see those responsible for the extrajudicial deaths of unarmed Black Americans held accountable. And sure, Republicans still buy sneakers too, but they also vote for the party that’s happy to sit idly by as Black Americans continue to be killed by cops.
This summer, more than any other, we’ve seen athletes use their voice to start awkward but necessary conversations. The women of the WNBA have led the way in this, but other sports are starting to take note. And the NFL is in a uniquely powerful position to host these conversations. As America’s real pastime—according to most polls, it is three times as popular as basketball—the league, and players, know that weekends are built around pro football. With the rapt attention of the masses, this is the year that football players must find their voice.
For that reason, in the year it seems the NFL matters the least, it matters the most.
AFC East preview
17 July 2014: Eric Garner
Eric Garner died after he was wrestled to the ground by New York police officer Daniel Pantaleo. While in a choke hold, Mr Garner pleaded for his life, uttering the same phrase 11 times:I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
I can’t breathe
It’s incorrect to think that the direction of the AFC East changed fundamentally in late June when the Patriots, without Tom Brady on their roster for the first time in two decades, signed Cam Newton for peanuts and instantly gave themselves the best quarterback in the division. There have been too many other changes in New England for it to be that simple with Bill Belichick seeing a big talent drain on defence before starters Patrick Chung and Dont’a Hightower both opted out over Covid fears.
Instead, and quite remarkably considering they haven’t won a playoff game since 1995, the path to the playoffs in the AFC East runs through Buffalo. With the best defence in the division, the Bills will hope the addition of Stefon Diggs is the final tool Josh Allen needs to give them a deep playoff run.
For the Dolphins and Jets, this feels like a rebuilding season. However, if Tua Tagovailoa takes over the Miami offence earlier than expected, and the Buffalo hype train gets derailed, there is an outside chance they could squeeze into an expanded playoffs from what is, on paper at least, the worst division in football.
Playoff prediction: Bills
AFC North preview
9 August 2014: Michael Brown
18 year old Michael Brown was shot and killed in Ferguson, Missouri, allegedly over the theft of a box of cigars. He was shot six times. A report from the Department of Justice later concluded that the police force had displayed racial bias against Brown and used excessive force. While the officer involved, Darren Wilson, resigned from the force, he was not prosecuted.
You can’t talk about the AFC North without discussing the quarterbacks. Cincinnati will be led by number one overall pick Joe Burrow, the Ravens have the league MVP in Lamar Jackson, Pittsburgh welcomes back two-time Super Bowl winner Ben Roethlisberger, and the Browns have Baker Mayfield.
Many are ready to give the divisional title to Baltimore, but with one of the league’s best defences, even average quarterback play from the Steelers will give them cause for optimism. However, the Ravens have real Super Bowl ambitions this year, and should not be taken lightly.
This feels like a season too early for the Bengals, but it will be interesting to see how Joe Burrow’s game-changing play transfers to the professional ranks where, hopefully, his offensive line can keep him healthy. The Browns, meanwhile are going under the radar for the first time in three seasons, so perhaps this is the year they make the breakthrough?
Playoff prediction: Ravens
Steelers (wildcard)
AFC South preview
22 November 2014: Tamir Rice
12 year old Tamir Rice was playing with a toy gun when he was shot dead by officer Timothy Loehmann in Cleveland, Ohio. Loehmann faced no prosecution for the extrajudicial killing of Rice, but was sacked three years later for lying on his application form.
With apologies to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the AFC South looks to be a battle between the Titans, Texans, and Colts in 2020. Many had equally high hopes for Indianapolis ahead of the 2019 season, hopes that were scuppered by the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck. The addition of Philip Rivers is, in theory, an upgrade of Jacoby Brissett. However, should the ageing quarterback fire 20 picks to just 23 touchdowns again, he could soon find himself warming the bench.
While the Texans still have Deshaun Watson, they have a chance. However, the loss of DeAndre Hopkins is huge and just like his in-game decision making cost them the chance of a Super Bowl last year, Bill O’Brien’s off the field decision making could well put paid to those aspirations in 2020.
The Titans, meanwhile, are the most intriguing team in the division. Derrick Henry led the league in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns last season, and yet it was a change at quarterback that really seemed to turn around the Titans’ fortunes. But there has been a significant volume of turnover in Tennessee, and that’s what makes this division so interesting.
Playoff prediction: Titans
Texans (wildcard)
AFC West preview
5 July 2016: Alton Sterling
Alton Sterling was shot six times, including three times in the chest, as police officers responded to a disturbance in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. It was determined that neither Howie Lake (suspended from the force), who held Sterling on the ground as Blane Salamoni (dismissed from the force) killed him, should face prosecution for their actions.
With the best quarterback in football and an elite defence, Kansas City are winning the division and more likely than most champions to defend their Super Bowl title too. However, outside of Andy Reid’s team, the West is set up to extremely competitive.
With the playoffs now expanded to seven teams in each conference, there’s a solid argument to be made for the Broncos, Chargers, and—this will never not be weird to write—Las Vegas Raiders.
Denver has quietly put together a nice roster filled to the brim with talent, but questions remain over John Elway’s drafting of quarterbacks and Drew Lock has a lot of work to do. Tyrod Taylor offers the Chargers more experience, but they’ll have to build their season around one of the league’s top defences if they’re to reach the postseason. As for the Raiders, they’ve certainly made strides to improve their defence, but this could be the last chance saloon for Derek Carr who finds himself surrounded by some nice pieces on offence for the first time since 2016.
Playoff prediction: Kansas City
Chargers
NFC East preview
6 July 2016: Philando Castile
Philando Castile was killed while driving with his girlfriend in St Paul, Minnesota. Pulled over by the police during a routine traffic stop, Castile told them he was licensed to carry a weapon and that he had one in his possession. As he reached for his licence, Jeronimo Yanez shot him four times. Despite the encounter being livestreamed on Facebook, Yanez was found not guilty of second-degree manslaughter.
Rivalling the AFC East as the worst division in football, the presence of the Dallas Cowboys and New York Football Giants means we’ll see way more of this division on TV than anyone with any degree of self-respect would want to.
A two-horse race between the Eagles and Cowboys, the right to be knocked out in the first round of the playoffs is likely to be be decided by the supporting casts and not the franchise QB on either team. With Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb, Dallas boasts one of the best wide-receiving corps in the league. However, their failure to believe in their own quarterback could come back to haunt them before the end of the season.
For the Eagles, much depends on what happens to an offensive line—once among the best in the league—and now in something of an existential crisis. Jason Peters, referred to by Andy Reid as the best left tackle in football, is refusing to play the position unless he gets more money. This type of locker room shenanigans rarely bodes well for a team’s chances. Elsewhere, the Giants need to see a big step up from Daniel Jones, while the Washington football team continues to exist. Sadly.
Playoff prediction: Cowboys
NFC North preview
18 March 2018: Stephon Clark
Stephon Clark died after being shot 20 times in Sacramento, California for the crime of being Black while armed with a mobile phone in his grandmother’s driveway. The police initially refused to name Terrance Mercadal and Jared Robinet, while the district attorney did not press charges, saying the officers had not committed any crime.
The Green Bay Packers were in position to challenge in the postseason if they used the 2020 draft to add much needed weapons to Aaron Rodgers’ offence. Instead, they drafted his eventual replacement while their only big name acquisition, Devin Funchess, opted out of the season because of Covid.
Elsewhere, the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs but became much better on defence with the blockbuster addition of former Jags defensive end, Yannick Ngakoue. It’s an excellent bit of business and likely separates Minnesota from the rest of the division.
Perhaps the most intriguing team in the NFC is the Detroit Lions. Of all the teams likely to make the push from worst to first, the Lions have vastly improved their defence —despite the loss of Darius Slay—while their offence looks to build on the promise they showed last year before Matthew Stafford’s injury. In Chicago, the fact the team can’t decide between Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles speaks volumes.
Playoff prediction: Vikings
Lions (wildcard)
NFC South preview
13 March 2020: Breonna Taylor
Breonna Taylor, a 26 year old emergency medical technician, was shot eight times when officers Brett Hankison, Jon Mattingly, and Myles Cosgrove raided her apartment in Louisville, Kentucky. The police were executing a search warrant as part of a drugs raid, but no drugs were found. The cops who murdered Breonna Taylor have still not been arrested.
Were the NFL to be decided on paper, the New Orleans Saints would be very much in the conversation, with few weaknesses across the roster. However, relying on a 41 year old quarterback is far from ideal. Indeed, as PFF points out, Drew Brees is a very different player in the final third of the season (including playoffs) with a dramatic drop off in yards per attempt, passer rating, and accuracy from week 14 on. That’s something Sean Peyton needs to manage carefully in 2020.
Speaking of ageing quarterbacks, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed some dude call Tom Brady this offseason. Given how much Brady did with so little receiving talent towards the end in New England, having the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronk, and OJ Howard to throw to in Tampa must feel like all his Christmases have come at once. If their defence can continue the top-10 play it showed in the latter half of 2019, then the Bucs are legit NFC contenders.
Elsewhere, it’s difficult to know what to expect from the Atlanta Falcons. Much depends on the ability of their young offensive line to come together to give Matt Ryan a chance to find Julio Jones and the exciting Calvin Ridley. For Carolina, while it’s good to see Teddy Bridgewater back in a starting gig four years after what looked a career ending injury, they remain very much the whipping boys of this division.
Playoff prediction: Bucs
Saints (wildcard)
NFC West preview
25 May 2020: George Floyd
George Floyd died after being arrested in Minneapolis. He was held down by police officers, one of whom—Derek Chauvin— kneeled on his neck for nine minutes and 30 seconds.“I can’t breathe,” Floyd said near the beginning of the incident.
“What do you want?” an officer said.
“I can’t breathe!” Floyd responded.
Perhaps the strongest division in football, the NFC West can boast two title favourites in the Seahawks and 49ers, as well as an LA Rams team just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance. In fact, there’s a good chance that all three could make the playoffs, but I can’t help but feel that LA have missed their Vince Lombardi window.
The 49ers are divisional favourites, but the loss of Emmanuel Sanders and DeForest Buckner will be felt. However, as long as Kyle Shanahan is calling the plays, San Francisco has a real chance of making a deep playoff run once more. Keen to join them will be the Seahawks, who are finally starting to build a franchise again after a few seasons of living in no-man’s land.
Even the Arizona Cardinals with second year quarterback Kyler Murray at the helm are not without their chances, but the West does look to be a two-horse race between Seattle and San Francisco.
Playoff prediction: Seahawks
49ers (wildcard)
